Alternate history: what if Britain and France went to war in 1898?

If fighting did break out, it would have had “huge consequences for international relations and the course of the 20th century,” says historian and author Saul David.

Africa in the late-19th century was being carved up, claimed and colonised by European powers in what is often referred to as the ‘Scramble for Africa’. Britain and France had footholds across the continent, and wished to connect their colonial acquisitions. Britain was ambitiously planning a railroad from South Africa to Egypt; France was looking to establish a line of control from east to west.

And right in the middle, where their respective ambitions intersected, was a small town called Fashoda. The French were determined to get there first.

In 1896, an expedition set out from Gabon made up of around 150 men – including 11 French officers and a large number of Senegalese troops – under the command of Captain Jean-Baptiste Marchand. Following a gruelling trek across Central Africa, in which they kept getting lost and had to drag their boat across hundreds of miles of land, they reached Fashoda on 10 July 1898.

Although comprising little more than an abandoned fort in ruins, the strategic town was now in the hands of Marchand and his men. Fashoda would strengthen France’s trade route from West Africa to its outpost in Djibouti, and act as a base from which to force the British out of Egypt.

Marchand’s audacious expedition could not be ignored. The British Prime Minister, Lord Salisbury, ordered a force under Major-General Horatio Herbert Kitchener to advance south along the Nile River. Kitchener was on campaign to reconquer Sudan for British-controlled Egypt, having decisively defeated the Muslim Mahdists in the battle of Omdurman and occupied Khartoum.

He reached Fashoda on 18 September 1898 and met with Marchand. A second French expedition had set out from Djibouti in the east to reinforce Marchand’s men, but, despite having a shorter distance to cover, was forced to turn back while travelling through Ethiopia. This left the French with approximately a tenth of the British force.

Kitchener stated his position that French presence in Egyptian territory could not be accepted and made it clear that, while he would not instigate a conflict, he would not back down.

The French commander expressed the same, fully aware his enemy outnumbered his force 10 to one and was supported by gunboats. A standoff began as both sides waited for their governments to make their moves.

On the brink of war

Despite both men remaining calm, news of the Fashoda Incident sparked a political crisis in Britain and France. Newspapers were filled with rhetoric and patriotic fervour. The Royal Navy was put on alert and the fleet in the Mediterranean readied for action. There were calls for war in parliament. France attempted, unsuccessfully, to ensure Russian support in an imminent conflict. The longer that things went unchanged in Fashoda, the closer Europe seemed to get to all-out war.

In truth, neither side wanted that to happen. Lord Salisbury refused to send an ultimatum to Paris and the French had become consumed by other concerns, namely the Dreyfus Affair. The ongoing scandal had divided opinion between those who believed army captain Alfred Dreyfus had been rightly convicted of treason several years earlier, and those who believed he was the innocent victim of a military cover-up and anti-Semitism.

But the situation at Fashoda could have changed, believes David. A stray bullet, a moment of lapsed leadership, or a piece of miscommunication could have seen the British and French come to blows. If a firefight had occurred, Marchand would likely have lost badly due to Kitchener’s overwhelming numerical supremacy. While a quick victory may be have been enough to sate the British, the French would have been humiliated and all-too easily sought retaliation.

With Britain and France going to war, alliances would have been drawn up. The Russians were certainly hostile to the British due to the ‘Great Game’ – diplomatic and political confrontations over Afghanistan, Central and South Asia – so may have sided with the French, and Germany may have allied themselves with Britain.

A stray bullet, a moment of lapsed leadership, or a piece of miscommunication could have seen the British and French come to blows

It could have quickly become a world war if fighting were to consume colonies, which could have benefitted the British as they had a clear advantage at sea thanks to the Royal Navy.

Whatever the outcome, the greatest result of an armed conflict would have been the loss of the Entente Cordiale in 1904. “Fighting would have kept Britain out of the loose ‘alliance’ with Russia and France that Germany found so threatening in the lead up to the First World War,” says David.

“Would this have prevented the war? Probably not. Germany had already embarked on its policy of world power, building up its navy to challenge Britain’s. That arms race would have continued.”

Yet a war in 1898 provoked by the Fashoda Incident may have kept Britain out of that world war entirely, continues David, drastically changing the complex networks of alliances that formed, how the war was fought, and who would have won. The Central Powers – Germany and Austria-Hungary – could have emerged victorious.

“That would have meant an authoritarian, anti-Semitic, nationalist government dominating mainland Europe for the foreseeable future, with much of Eastern Europe reduced to slave state status, and those in the west subordinated to Germany.”

More alternate history

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This content first appeared in the September 2021 edition of BBC History Revealed