The shockingly simple question historian Tom Holland would ask Julius Caesar

Instead, he’d keep it simple: “Were you surprised to be assassinated?”

Speaking on the HistoryExtra podcast, Holland explained why the answer to this question, more than any other that Caesar might give, could reveal an extraordinary insight into the statesman’s mindset in the final moments of his life.

Did Caesar see his murder coming?

The assassination of Julius Caesar by a group of senators – including his friend and ally Brutus – is one of the most famous betrayals in history. But was Caesar expecting it? As Holland explains, the available historical accounts – particularly from the ancient biographer Suetonius, who was writing in the early Imperial era – paint an ambiguous picture.

On one hand, Caesar would have had multiple warnings: ominous prophecies, political tensions, and even direct advice from those close to him. But on the other hand, Caesar seemed to carry himself with a sense of invincibility and arrogance, says Holland – something perpetuated by subsequent portrayals of him by the likes of William Shakespeare.

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Either way, Holland believes that the answer to his question would speak volumes about the depth of Caesar’s character beyond what his reputation from history tells us.

As for the answer Holland thinks he’d receive, he estimates that Caesar wouldn’t have been able to predict the nature of his death and downfall.

“It just seemed to me such an obvious thing for anyone to do,” says Holland, paraphrasing a possible answer, “that I just assumed they wouldn't do it.”

What Suetonius tells us about Caesar’s final moments

Ancient biographer Suetonius, writing decades after Caesar’s death, provides a vivid but possibly exaggerated account of the murder. He claims that Caesar was warned multiple times but ignored the threats, even dismissing a note that could have saved his life.

But as Holland points out, Suetonius’ writings should not always be taken at face value, highlighting how Roman historians often shaped narratives for political ends – something that may also apply to the accounts of Caesar’s death.

For example, the infamous emperor Tiberius’ reputation is hard to assess for this reason, Holland says. “ Tiberius' retirement is framed by people who are hostile to him,” he notes, outlining that this makes it difficult to disentangle how much of Suetonius’ writing on him is fact or fiction.

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And, therefore, how much of the information about Caesar’s demise can we really trust? Did Caesar actually say his famous words "Et tu, Brute?" as he fell? Or was this another dramatic flourish added after the fact? That’s a question historians continue to debate.

A moment that changed history

Caesar’s assassination set off a chain reaction that led to the collapse of the Roman Republic and the rise of the Empire under Augustus – a figure who Holland describes as “probably the most remarkable political operator, not just in Roman, but the whole of Western history.”

While historians can debate the merits, disasters and long-term impact of Caesar’s rule, Holland’s question cuts to the heart of the man himself. Because if Caesar, this famous master strategist, couldn’t anticipate his own eventual demise, how might that change the way in which historians evaluate him today?

Caesar: Death of a Dictator

Member exclusive | On the Ides of March 44 BC, the most famous Roman in history was murdered. Julius Caesar's assassination transformed Rome forever, and the image of his bloody toga has haunted monarchs and tyrants ever since.

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